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Archive for Market Reports

2011 Forecast for Single Tenant Net Leased properties bodes well for Sellers

Single tenant net leased properties are widely misunderstood by the private investor. They can provide steady returns and a hedge against inflation because the tenant pays all of the expenses no matter what they increase. It is, however, important to look carefully at the lease, location, and tenant. Marcus and Millichap’s 2011 outlook is a good read for the private investor. There is much to interpret in this research, however, as the market is changing dramatically. Returns have gone down, and values have gone up as investors turn to safety.  Moreover, the amount of available product is down considerably. This bodes well for sellers, but makes it difficult for buyers to find good product.

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The Real Estate Capital Markets are alive and well! – The Linneman Letter, Fall 2010

Savor every word of Dr. Linneman’s fall market preview. He discusses transaction volume, movement in values, availability of debt, the Bond and REIT Markets, and shares a positive perspective on the future of the Commercial Real Estate markets. Financing is available, job growth is beginning to occur, and bad loans are gradually being resolved. The result is a positive movement in pricing, and the ability for many properties to refinance loans where they thought impossible just 1 year ago. What happens next is going to impacted by the policy of the Federal Government, but the building blocks are there.

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Dr. Glenn Mueller’s 2011 Cycle Forecast has now been published.

The 2nd quarter 2011 Market Cycle Forecast predicts a slight improvement in occupancy across all product types. More importantly, the report predicts slight rent growth during that quarter. This is the first and most significant step in the real estate recovery.

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Dr. Peter Linneman, Director of Real Estate at the Wharton Business School, summarizes his Summer 2010 report.

Dr. Linneman estimates 3 to 3.5 million new jobs a year through 2013. But where does that get us? With population growth and recovery of lost jobs…right about 7%.

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UCLA’s 2nd quarter forecast predicts a tepid recovery with slower growth initially in California compared to the rest of the nation.

Just about all of the research we read predicts moderate Gross Domestic Product growth, and a slow decline in job growth. The UCLA Anderson School of business second quarter forecast predicts the same.  Given this scenario, and a significant number of loans to work through, the commercial real estate recovery will be rocky.  The most positive thing that the forecast points to is moderate inflation as well as moderate growth in interest rates. We think this bodes well for a sustained recovery in housing.

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